US Imperial hegemony has begun its slow decline, causing a subtle shift in US foreign policy. The US state has become more erratic, lashing out to maintain their once dominant global position. Trump’s threats to take over multiple nations including Canada and Gaza, along with his overtly antagonistic trade policy are all indicative of this shift. Ultimately this imperial decline and the rise of viable alternatives, most notably China and the BRICS alliance, has caused the US to reconsider the strength of their influence in various regions, including the Asia-Pacific.

China has quickly risen as a top power player in the region, much to the worry of New Zealand, Australia, and the US. New Zealand and Australia have both postured against this growing Chinese influence. New Zealand pulled over $18 million dollars in funding to the Cook Islands after the Pacific nation signed a strategic partnership agreement with China, and Australia has been scrambling to strengthen economic ties between other Pacific nations, recently securing a security and economic deal with Vanuatu worth $325 million Australian dollars. Despite the apprehension toward Chinese influence in the region, they remain one of New Zealand and Australia’s largest trading partners. For the first half of 2025, it looked like the US was taking a different approach, possibly a result of its erratic foreign policy. The US has withdrawn from the WHO, ceased almost all of its foreign aid, and has placed tariffs on multiple Pacific nations, causing significant alienation. At the end of July 2025, however, the US finally made an attempt to increase their regional influence. FBI director Kash Patel unveiled a stand-alone FBI office in Wellington; the first of its kind in New Zealand.

Shortly after the office was revealed, Kash Patel was quoted saying that the FBI was using the office as a way to “counter Chinese influence”. This sentiment seemed to surprise both Judith Collins and Winston Peters, who emphasized that the FBI presence is merely to support New Zealand’s response to cybercrime and international drug trafficking. China certainly seems to have taken Patel at his word, quickly releasing a statement calling his rhetoric part of a “cold war mentality”. Given the US position, it is irrelevant whether the New Zealand government intended to push back on Chinese influence.

This is a major policy misstep on the part of New Zealand. The office was opened without any public consultation or forewarning, and faced almost instant public backlash, with protests in Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch. This move is one in a long series of actions tightening the relationship between New Zealand and the US, including more extensive NATO collaboration and explicit support for US military action. Seeing all of this, it’s hard to tell who is calling the shots when it comes to New Zealand foreign policy. Is it really the New Zealand government? More often than not it seems as though we are simply a tool of US imperial interest, whether or not the New Zealand people like it.

The US is dragging us into a geo-political conflict that goes completely against our interests, we are being pitted against our second largest trading partner by an erratic “ally” that is scrambling to influence a region they have found slipping away from them. Whether or not the New Zealand government has entered into this arrangement with the goal of aiding US interest we are still drawing ourselves closer to the US. Why have enemies when you have friends like the US? We can only speculate at this point what further US involvement in the region will mean for us. But I doubt it’ll be anything good.